How Cheap Will Wheat Get?

03:40PM May 08, 2019
Wheat field
( Charles Johnson )

The recent 2019 Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Wheat Tour uncovered what the trade expected from farmers this season; a decent wheat crop. 

Kansas yields were estimated at 47.2 bushels per acre with a total crop 306.5 million bushels. Despite the smallest acreage in roughly 100 years, markets are struggling to find a silver lining for wheat. 

"We know that the yields are good," says Steve Georgy of Allendale during an interview with AgDay's Clinton Griffiths. "The thing is, maturities are a little bit slower in what they found."

The latest crop progress report from USDA shows only 14 percent of the Kansas winter wheat crop has headed. The five-year average is 41 percent. 

"That's just due to late planting and a little longer winter than what we had expected," says Georgy. "The bigger issue that we have for wheat is the fact that we have over a billion [bushel] carry out."

Georgy says globally there's still a big pile of wheat and that's keeping prices down. 

"There's a point where [wheat] becomes cheap," says Georgy. "We need to watch the export sales and see when we're a value."

Georgy says he thinks markets are nearing that point. 

Listen to his complete comments on the wheat market in the video above.

Wheat Tour Analysis